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# Countdown to | The 51st State
- URL: https://craft-politics.ghost.io/episodes/countdown-to-the-51st-state/
- Published: 2025-01-29T19:13:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-05T20:55:23.000Z
- Author: Joseph Lavoie
- Tags: #episode, #interview, #ai-5, Nicki Neily, President and CEO, Parents Defending Education, 69 min

A week into Trump 2.0, and nobody's quite sure what just happened. The executive orders are flying. Colombia nearly went to war with the United States over deportation flights, then didn't. Greenland is still not the 51st state. And Canada is holding its breath for February 1st tariffs that may or may not arrive.

So we brought in someone who lives it.

Nicki Neily is president and CEO of Parents Defending Education, a senior fellow with the Independent Women's Network, and has been around Republican politics and think tank world long enough to know when Trump is bluffing and when he isn't. She's also a good friend of Andrew's, dating back to 2005 UK election campaigns.

What we got into:

- **Keep them guessing elevated to high political style.** Nicki's take on why the chaos isn't a bug, it's the entire operating system. And why trying to take Trump literally instead of seriously is scrambling everyone's brain.
- **America's glasnost moment.** People are saying things they've been thinking for years. On immigration, on DEI, on gender issues in schools. Trump didn't make them think it, he just gave them permission to say it out loud.
- **Dems in disarray.** No protests this time. No pink hats. Half the Democratic Party says they didn't go progressive enough, the other half says slow your roll. And if the sky is falling, why were Obama and the Clintons sitting in the front row at the inauguration?
- **The Greenland play isn't as crazy as it sounds.** Russia's been making moves in the Arctic for years. There are minerals. There's strategy. And Denmark just announced billions in new spending. So is Trump stupid or brilliant? Nicki says it's working.
- **DEI is collapsing everywhere.** Corporate war rooms. Universities scrambling. The US military took down a video on African American soldiers because they weren't sure it complied. And Nicki thinks a lot of these organizations have been looking for cover to walk this back for a while.
- **Nobody understands tariffs.** Americans think it only hits the other guy. They don't realize presents under the Christmas tree are about to get more expensive. And Trump's benefiting from the fact that schools are terrible and nobody understands economics.

Also discussed: DeepSeek's AI shakeup and what it means for the West, why Marco Rubio might not last, whether JD Vance or Tom Cotton takes up the mantle in 2028, the Senate seats Republicans have to defend in 2026, and Joseph's theory that empathy is the only thing separating effective communicators from losers.

Find Nicki at Parents Defending Education: [https://defendinged.org](https://defendinged.org/?ref=craft-politics.ghost.io)

00:00 Welcome and Fat Tug IPA — Snowshoeing brags and travel chaos  
06:27 DeepSeek Deep Sixes US Stocks — China's AI wake-up call  
12:47 Trump Ridicules Denmark Over Greenland — Defense spending or madness?  
16:31 Canada and Mexico Hold Their Breath — The 25% tariff threat  
23:57 Introducing Nicki Neily — Republican wonk and campaign veteran  
26:16 The First Week Fire Hose — Shocked, surprised, or neither?  
40:46 Where Are the Protests? — Dems in disarray and exhausted outrage  
42:58 Is Trump Already a Lame Duck? — MAGA beyond Trump  
46:48 Greenland and Western Defense — Stupidity or strategic genius?  
51:07 The Tariff Reality Check — Economics Americans don't understand  
59:01 The DEI Collapse — Corporate cover and cultural shift  
1:03:22 Deep Canvassing and Empathy — Why listening beats lecturing  
1:07:46 Wrap — Fat Tug's Fault and Final Thoughts