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# Wonky Polling Data | What's up?
- URL: https://craft-politics.ghost.io/episodes/making-sense-of-the-polls/
- Published: 2025-02-18T19:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-06T17:12:42.000Z
- Author: Joseph Lavoie
- Tags: Alex Swann, Pollster, VP at Crestview, #episode, #interview, #ai-5

The polls are all over the map. One has the Conservatives up 19 points. Another has them at five. Mark Carney hasn't even won the leadership yet, and suddenly everyone's asking whether Pierre Poilievre should be worried.

This week on Craft Politics: Alex Swann, Senior Strategist at Crestview Strategy, joins Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy to cut through the noise and answer what's actually happening in Canadian polling, and what the horse race numbers aren't telling you.

We discuss:

**The age gap that explains everything.** Voters 55-plus moved first, and Alex thinks it's partly because they still watch TV news. Middle-aged voters, underwater on mortgages and groceries, haven't caught up yet. And younger voters may be living in a completely different information environment.

**Why Conservative support has stayed rock solid.** Liberal numbers are moving, but the Tory vote is parked between 38 and the mid-40s. Alex walks through why the fundamentals, interest rates, wages, housing, still favour the opposition, even if the leadership change helps the Liberals claw back to where they were last summer.

**The Trudeau effect versus the Trump effect.** Is liberal momentum about getting rid of Trudeau, or is it about rallying around the flag against Trump? Alex says the data doesn't make it clear, but leadership changes are almost always the biggest factor.

**Two ballot questions, one election.** Seniors may be fixated on Trump and sovereignty. Middle-aged voters are still asking, are you better off than you were four years ago? If those two groups are answering different questions, the campaign gets very complicated.

**Why Doug Ford's Ontario win matters federally.** An incumbent crushing it during a cost of living crisis, because he was on the side of consumers early. The federal Liberals were distracted by Ukraine, Bill C-11, and a housing budget that came 12 months too late.

**What to watch in the next 30 days.** Alex's advice: wait until Ontario votes and the Liberal leadership resolves before reading too much into federal polls. Then watch whether middle-aged voters, the most pessimistic cohort, start to move, or whether the economic headwinds keep them locked in.

Also discussed: why it's squeaky bum time at Conservative HQ, whether Carney's driving contrast as well as Poilievre, the NDP's Liberal Democrat moment, and why teaching grandma to suck eggs is a perfectly reasonable thing to say.

00:00 Welcome and Wild Eye Ramble On Pale Ale  
01:35 Pierre Poilievre's massive Canada First rally  
03:06 The rally's policy platform reveal  
04:11 From anger to patriotism — Poilievre's messaging shift  
07:36 Threading the Trump needle — Poilievre's challenge  
08:53 Liberal attack ads and the 'Canada is broken' problem  
09:46 Conservative war chest and advertising firepower  
10:29 Teaching grandma to suck eggs — A language interlude  
13:18 Introducing Alex Swan — Making sense of the polls  
14:06 Why polling right now is unusually difficult  
16:03 The 55-plus movement and media consumption  
21:00 TV news still matters — Don't write it off yet  
22:15 Where do the numbers actually stand?  
23:40 Leadership matters most — Especially for younger voters  
24:58 Two different ballot questions — The generational divide  
26:23 Trump versus Trudeau — Which matters more?  
27:18 Mark Carney's rising awareness and the familiarity factor  
28:37 Canadian ambivalence on US free trade  
29:31 How worried should Conservatives be?  
29:58 The economic undercurrents that still favor Conservatives  
32:15 Are you better off than four years ago?  
33:21 The change-from-within challenge  
34:35 The NDP vanishes from the conversation  
35:55 The Boris Johnson precedent — Should Conservatives worry?  
37:29 Squeaky bum time — Conservatives sweat the numbers  
38:11 Doug Ford's Ontario exception — Incumbent advantage  
39:06 Why the federal Liberals missed the cost of living crisis  
41:01 The Ford brand and downtown Toronto success  
42:42 What to watch in the next 30 days of polling  
45:07 The only poll that matters is Election Day