To Vote Against Labour

I’ve been trying to think of another moment in British politics where you could vote for the governing party to get rid of the governing party’s leader. I can’t. But I also hadn’t thought about this angle until Andrew made the point on our first “Quick Take” episode — a format we’ll try when we don’t have time to record a full show.

But back to the story, it’s odd, isn’t it? Andy Burnham secured 54% of the vote and a 9,241 majorityin a seat Reform had topped in every ward back in May’s locals. He ran as an opposition candidate against his own government, and it worked.

As Andrew points out on this week’s show, the thing to watch now isn’t the win — it’s the lesson Labour draws from it. There’s about to be a period of intoxication. MPs will look at Makerfield and decide Burnham is the man who finally beats Reform.

Maybe. But look at the seats where his name wasn’t on the ballot. In Aberdeen South and Arbroath, the Labour vote fell through the floor, right where the national polls said it would. Makerfield wasn’t a Reform-beating machine. It was a personal brand, a protest vote, and four words: get rid of Starmer.

And none of the things making people angry change if Burnham walks into Number 10. The boats don’t stop. The anger just gets a new target — him.

00:00 Welcome and quick take format
00:47 Aberdeen South — Tories snap SNP seat on oil and gas
01:47 First Tory by-election win in Scotland in 50 years
02:34 Kemi Badenoch's positioning — not Reform light, not Lib Dem light
03:36 Arbroath results and Reform's growth in Scotland
03:59 Makerfield — Andy Burnham returns to Parliament
05:02 The bizarre referendum — vote Labour to oppose Labour
05:43 The myth of Andy Burnham and what happens next
07:03 Coronation or civil war? Labour's leadership crisis begins
08:23 The intoxication period and Reform reality check