Canada's Conservatives

The Conservative Party of Canada is on track for a majority government. Pierre Poilievre, once dismissed by elites, now commands a coalition that has reshaped Canadian politics. But how did he get here, and what happens when the rally around the flag fades?

This week on Craft Politics, Ginny Roth joins Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy to break down the conservative movement in Canada, how Poilievre built his voter coalition, and whether the Trump tariff crisis changes everything.

Ginny is a partner at Crestview Strategy, was director of communications for Pierre Poilievre's 2022 leadership campaign, and writes for The Hub and the National Post.

We discuss:

How Poilievre built his coalition. From COVID restrictions to housing supply to inflation, he was prosecuting policy arguments before they blew up in public, using language people could actually understand. Anglo-Saxon words, not Latinate ones. Plain language as political strategy.

The gateway moment. Joseph went door knocking in a nomination race and discovered almost every single person was a brand new Conservative member. They joined because Poilievre spoke about freedoms during the pandemic when it wasn't popular. That credibility opened the door to everything else.

A shockingly young coalition. This isn't your father's Conservative Party. Poilievre's base is young, economically insecure, doesn't own homes, and wants to tear down institutions. They're culturally conservative but not fiscal hawks. They want practical solutions, not doctrine.

The Trump problem. Rally around the flag is real. Incumbent premiers are getting a polling boost. Mark Carney is a blank canvas people can project onto. And some voters are starting to ask: is Poilievre too much like Trump?

What comes first in a Poilievre government. Ginny's prediction: not fiscal conservatism. Cultural conservatism. Bail reform, pulling DEI out of government, ending feminist foreign policy. The coalition is united on culture, divided on economics.

The contradictions ahead. Blue collar union workers and free market eggheads don't want the same things. Poilievre banned replacement workers to the dismay of Canadian business. These contradictions are easy to avoid in opposition. In government, with Trump threatening tariffs, you have to pick a side.

Find Ginny at The Hub and the National Post, and on X @GinnyRothTO.

00:00 Welcome and introducing Ginny Roth — Pierre Poilievre's former comms director
00:56 Yorkshire tea, coffee banter, and the early morning recording struggle
02:32 The political landscape shifts — polling softens for Poilievre
04:28 Rally around the flag — is the Conservative attack strategy backfiring?
07:39 The motivation gap — why Conservative voters may still show up
11:05 Deep dive begins — How Pierre Poilievre got here
13:15 Trudeau's nine-year grip and the Conservative apology tour
15:06 COVID, freedom, and saying the unsayable — Poilievre's breakthrough
17:31 Plain language, Anglo-Saxon words, and the Orwell doctrine
18:32 The leadership landslide and the new Conservative coalition
19:13 The gateway effect — COVID freedoms opened the door
21:10 Credibility through conviction — the end of peak issues management
23:10 The carbon tax gamble — when everyone said it was electoral suicide
23:47 Saying the unsayable without looking angry — the populist tightrope
26:56 The new coalition — Trump, Boris, and the Anglosphere realignment
30:13 Shockingly young — the age divide driving the Conservative surge
31:23 The doctrine question — is there a Poilievre ideology?
33:57 Free markets meet nationalism — the contradictions ahead
34:46 Deep down a free marketer — Poilievre's core economic beliefs
36:14 The polling shift — how worried should Conservatives be?
37:19 Mark Carney's best moment — projection without scrutiny
37:41 Pivot or precision? — Poilievre's response to Trump tariffs
38:54 Leading not following — the white knuckle approach to the moment
45:43 The counter-tariff debate — cutting off our nose to spite our face?
47:10 The China question — shutting back doors and building a North American bloc
48:08 What you're getting wrong about Poilievre — populist and intellectual
49:04 Cultural conservatism first — DEI, bail reform, and woke purges
50:32 A reformer, not a caretaker — Poilievre wants maximum change, fast
51:22 Wrap — auditions for a new co-host and thanking Ginny