Conservative Crumble?

The polls have flipped. Six weeks ago, Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives held a commanding lead. Today, Mark Carney's Liberals are ahead on vote share, seat projections, and nearly every ballot question that matters, including the one the Conservatives have owned for forty years: making life more affordable.

This week on Craft Politics, Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy ask whether we're watching the great conservative collapse of 2025, what Poilievre needs to do to turn it around, and whether Carney can survive a real campaign or if he'll implode the moment he's tested.

We discuss:

The numbers that matter. Leger has the Liberals at 42%, Conservatives at 39%. But the real story is in the favourables: 28% view Carney unfavorably, 49% view Poilievre unfavorably. First rule of politics: don't attack someone more popular than you.

What should Poilievre do? Andrew's take: stop trying to breathe life into the carbon tax. It's not landing. Pivot to this: these are the guys who weakened Canada over ten years, and now you want to reward them by putting them in charge of the Trump fight?

Carney's vulnerabilities. He's never been through a campaign crucible. He gets snippy with reporters. And his "look inside yourself" moment in Europe revealed something uncomfortable: a man who believes he's above scrutiny. Joseph's theory: maybe he won't campaign at all. Maybe he just governs through the writ period and lets Poilievre look like the divider.

The NDP has screwed themselves royally. Down to 9 or 11% in the polls. They propped up Trudeau when they could have forced an election and potentially become official opposition. Now they're staring at catastrophic losses, including seats in BC that could flip Liberal.

Andrew's constitutional rant. It's outrageous that Carney is walking around Europe calling himself Prime Minister without ever proving he commands the confidence of the House of Commons. That's the foundational convention of Westminster government. Vladimir Putin has had more votes cast for him than the current Prime Minister of Canada.

Also discussed: why the ballot question is now "who can handle Trump," whether industrial carbon pricing is a trap, the resilience of Conservative voter commitment, and why this might be the rare campaign where not campaigning is the right move.

Plus: Postbag responses to Free Angel 5221 (who thinks Europe has used and abused America), tasting notes on Wayback Brewing's citrus wheat and Mountain View's Sweethearts IPA, and a reminder that not a single 16 ounce beer can is produced in Canada.

00:00 Welcome and beer banter — Mountain View and Wayback Brewing
02:45 Mailbag — Yorkshire tea snobbery and French pronunciation wars
06:15 Free Angel's rant and the reality of Western alliances
11:17 The polling collapse — Conservatives lose their commanding lead
14:27 Mark Carney's favorability advantage and the tariff ballot question
17:17 What should the Conservatives do now? Strategic advice from the outside
19:53 The carbon tax trap — Why attacking industrial pricing won't work
27:08 Mark Carney's vulnerabilities — The blind trust disaster and snippy media moments
32:02 The basement campaign theory — Will Carney avoid the stump?
36:19 The NDP collapse — From kingmaker to irrelevance
39:13 Andrew's constitutional outrage — The unelected prime minister
45:00 Tasting notes and wrap — Citrus wheat versus caramel IPA