Trump's Tariffs

Donald Trump just declared economic war on Canada. Twenty-five percent tariffs, three days' notice, and the most integrated supply chain in the world ripped apart. And the question nobody can answer: why?

This week on Craft Politics: Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and one of Canada's foremost experts on international relations, joins Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy to explain what just happened, why Canada's response might be a strategic mistake, and how to deal with a bully you can't afford to leave.

We discuss:

Why this is a 98 out of 100 on the insanity scale. Tariffs on your two closest neighbors, most favored nation treatment for China, and no time for negotiation. Janice calls it what it is: economic warfare.

The dollar for dollar problem. Janice is one of the few voices saying Canada's tit for tat response was a mistake. When they're ten times your size and you need them more than they need you, you don't fight on a battlefield where you know you'll lose.

Mexico got the same result with a different approach. Gloria Scheinbaum didn't commit to specifics, left the door open for a call, and got the same 30 day pause Canada did. Trump called her first.

Why Europe won't save us. The deafening silence from NATO allies tells you everything. The EU is more worried about Russia than standing up for Canada, and Keir Starmer wants to have it all with everyone.

The real reason Trump loves tariffs. It's not fentanyl. It's not the border. It's about bringing manufacturing jobs back to a Rust Belt that was destroyed by technology, not trade, and nobody's been able to make him believe that story yet.

Living with the bully. We've been trying to diversify trade since the 1970s and failed. Europe trades with Europe, Asia with Asia, and we're North American. The next prime minister has to resist riding the nationalist wave, and that might be the hardest ask of all.

Also discussed: why a global 10% tariff might actually be better for Canada than what we just lived through, the liberal rules based international order that died in 2016, and the coming jobless economy that nobody's ready to talk about.

Janice Stein is founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto.

00:00 Introduction, Beer Selection, Tasting Notes
14:51 Understanding the Insanity of Current Tariff Policies
17:42 The Political Philosophy Behind Tariffs
20:40 Canada's Response to U.S. Tariffs
23:27 Strategic Approaches in International Relations
26:28 The Role of Bullying in Diplomacy
29:18 The European Union's Position on Tariffs
32:14 The Future of Global Trade Relations
35:10 Economic Warfare and Its Implications
37:51 The Challenge of Job Dislocation
40:39 Conclusion and Reflections on Globalization